Cum se calculează prognoza cursului valutar?

Prognoza se bazeaza pe analiza tehnica: medii mobile (MA7, MA30, MA90), regresie lineara pe ultimele 30 de puncte de date si un interval de incredere calculat din deviatia standard. Nu utilizeaza modele macroeconomice sau fundamentale.

Cat de precise sunt prognozele cursului valutar?

Prognozele sunt orientative si nu garanteaza cursul viitor. Cursul EUR/RON este relativ stabil datorita politicii BNR, dar poate varia din cauza factorilor macroeconomici, deciziilor politice sau evenimentelor globale. Nu constituie sfaturi de investitii.

Ce sunt mediile mobile MA7, MA30, MA90?

Mediile mobile (Moving Averages) sunt media aritmetica a cursului pe ultimele 7, 30 si respectiv 90 de zile. MA7 indica tendinta pe termen scurt, MA30 pe termen mediu, iar MA90 pe termen lung. Cand cursul actual este peste medie, indica o tendinta crescatoare.

Ce înseamnă intervalul de încredere pe grafic?

Intervalul de incredere (banda colorata) reprezinta zona in care cursul este probabil sa se incadreze, calculata ca media +/- 1.5 deviatii standard din ultimele 30 de zile. Nu garanteaza ca cursul va ramane in aceasta plaja.

De unde provin datele istorice?

Datele istorice sunt preluate de la Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR). Cursul oficial BNR este publicat zilnic in fiecare zi lucratoare, de obicei dupa ora 13:00, si este valabil pentru ziua urmatoare.

Exchange Rate Forecast 2026 — EUR, USD, GBP Trends

Historical Rate + Forecast

EUR / RON

Current Rate

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Historical Rate Forecast (Linear Trend) Confidence Interval

Moving Averages

MA 7 days

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MA 30 days

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MA 90 days

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MA = Moving Average. Compare the current rate with the average over different periods to identify the trend.

Volatility

Standard Deviation (30d)

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Monthly Minimum

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Monthly Maximum

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Estimated typical monthly range

Important Disclaimer

Forecasts are indicative and do not constitute investment advice. The BNR exchange rate may vary significantly from estimates due to macroeconomic factors, political decisions, geopolitical events, or central bank interventions. Use this data only as a reference point.

Methodology

The forecast is generated based on technical analysis of historical BNR exchange rate data. It does not use fundamental or macroeconomic models.

Methods used:

1. Moving Averages (MA7, MA30, MA90) — the arithmetic mean of the exchange rate over the last 7, 30, and 90 days respectively. Identifies short, medium, and long-term trends.

2. Linear Regression — calculated on the last 30 data points. Projects the trend for the next 30 days.

3. Confidence Interval — a band of +/- 1.5 standard deviations from the trend line, based on volatility over the last 30 days.

Limitations

⚠ Technical analysis cannot predict unexpected events (economic crises, political decisions, pandemics).

⚠ The EUR/RON exchange rate is relatively stable due to the BNR's policy of maintaining stability, which makes short-term forecasts less relevant.

⚠ Linear regression assumes the recent trend will continue, which is rarely the case in the long term.

⚠ The confidence interval does not guarantee the exchange rate will stay within that range — it is only a statistical estimate.

Trend Summary

30-day Trend

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30-day Forecast

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Estimated Change

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Useful Tools

Currency Converter → Set Rate Alert → BNR Historical Rates → BNR Rates Today →

Data Source

Historical data is sourced from the National Bank of Romania (BNR). The official BNR exchange rate is published daily on each business day, usually after 1:00 PM.

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Exchange Rate Forecast